Photo Source: via Agence France-Presse (Wire photo)
MANILA, Philippines — With Donald Trump poised for a second term in the White House, analysts say his “America First” doctrine and hardline stance on China could challenge the Philippines’ current strategy of aligning closely with the United States. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has pursued stronger defense ties with the US, but Trump’s unpredictable approach to alliances may complicate this relationship.
Political science expert Cleve Arguelles warns that Trump’s transactional style could leave the Philippines vulnerable if he shifts focus away from supporting Manila against China’s assertive moves in the South China Sea. “Should Washington under Trump decide to withdraw support, we could be left on our own against a powerful neighbor,” Arguelles noted.
During his first term, Trump demonstrated a willingness to bypass multilateral agreements and impose tariffs unilaterally, actions that reflected his reluctance to engage deeply with longstanding allies. This approach caused strain in US-Philippines relations, with the Philippines even reviewing its defense treaty in 2018 due to perceived US ambivalence.
Rommel Ong, a retired Philippine Navy vice admiral, believes the existing military cooperation may provide stability, yet the Philippines may need to expand partnerships beyond the US. Diversifying alliances with Japan, Australia, and other regional allies could help the Philippines navigate potential shifts in US policy.
As Trump’s “America First” policy returns, analysts say the Philippines may need to reassess its defense strategy to maintain security in an increasingly tense South China Sea.
